Sweet 16 NCAA Betting Trends

carlitosway · Mar 27, 2024

Steve Makinen reveals betting trends you need to know for the Sweet 16 games of March Madness.

Sweet 16 NCAA Betting Trends

Last week, I started an NCAA Tournament series qualifying the key data from my Round-by-Round and Conference Trends articles in the VSiN Bracket Mania Betting Guide, essentially taking the leg work out of the process for readers. Last week’s pieces were for the First Round and the Second Round. Now it’s time for the Sweet 16, featuring four games each on Thursday and Friday. Look for the Elite Eight piece on Saturday morning. Best of luck on the Sweet 16 games.

Sweet 16 Games

• Laying big points seems to be getting riskier and riskier in the Sweet 16 in recent years, as favorites of five points or more are 13-9 SU but just 7-15 ATS (31.8%) since ’17. (AGAINST CONNECTICUT -11, ARIZONA -7, MARQUETTE -6.5, PURDUE -5.5)

• Going even further with the big favorites in the Sweet 16 recently, as double-digit favorites are 18-2 SU but 6-14 ATS (30%) since ’01. (AGAINST CONNECTICUT -11)
• Sweet 16 favorites of eight points or more are on a 26-8-3 UNDER (76.5%) the total run allowing 63.0 PPG (UNDER 136 UCONN-SDSU)
• Sweet 16 No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have taken care of business lately and combined are on a 35-12 SU and 28-18-1 ATS (60.9%) run over the last nine seasons. However, they were just 1-3 SU and ATS last year. (ON CONNECTICUT -11, ARIZONA -7, MARQUETTE -6.5, PURDUE -5.5, NORTH CAROLINA -4.5, HOUSTON -4, TENNESSEE -3, IOWA STATE -2)
• The Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds, but they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 15-7-1 ATS (68.2%) in that role since 2011. (ON NC STATE +5.5)
• The popular No. 1-4 matchup has been all No. 1 lately, 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS (69.2%) over the last nine tournaments. (ON NORTH CAROLINA -4.5, HOUSTON -4)
• Since 2010, in Sweet 16 games involving at least one non-major conference program, UNDER the total is 24-14 (63.2%). (UNDER 154.5 GONZAGA-PURDUE, UNDER 136 UCONN-SDSU)
• Of the last 13 Sweet 16 games with totals of 150 or more, eight went UNDER (61.5%) (UNDER 154.5 GONZAGA-PURDUE, UNDER 173.5 NORTH CAROLINA-ALABAMA, UNDER 150 MARQUETTE-NC STATE)

Applicable Conference NCAA Betting Trends for Sweet 16

ACC

Over the last two NCAA Tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 29-10 SU and 29-9-1 ATS (76.3%). (ON NORTH CAROLINA -4.5, DUKE +4, NC STATE +6.5, CLEMSON +7)
In the role of pick ’em or small underdog (up to 4.5 points), ACC teams are on a 18-3 ATS (85.7%) surge, including 11 straight covers. (ON DUKE +4)
ACC teams are just 30-47-1 ATS (39%) as favorites of five points or less in the NCAAs since ’98. (AGAINST NORTH CAROLINA -4.5)
ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 17-8-2 ATS (68%) since 2012. (ON NC STATE +5.5)
ACC-Pac-12 tournament matchups have also gone UNDER on totals most often, 14-3-1 (82.4%) since ’03. ACC teams are on a 20-5 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) tourney run in the last 25 vs. Pac-12 foes. (ON CLEMSON +7, UNDER 152 CLEMSON-ARIZONA)
ACC teams are on a surge of 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS (84.6%) in the NCAAs versus Big 12 foes. (ON DUKE +4)
In the 19 most recent NCAA Tournament matchups between the ACC and Big East, OVER the total is 13-6 (68.4%). (OVER 150 NC STATE-MARQUETTE)
Seventeen of the last 22 NCAA Tournament matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone UNDER the total (77.3%). (UNDER 173.5 NORTH CAROLINA-ALABAMA)

Big 12

Favorites are 14-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS (66.7%) in the last 19 NCAA Tournament games between the Big 12 and Big Ten. (ON IOWA STATE -2)

Big East

Top two seeded (No. 1 and No. 2) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 24-5 SU and 21-8 ATS (75%) in the NCAAs since ’16. (ON CONNECTICUT -11, MARQUETTE -6.5)
Teams from the Big East have been highly reliable double-digit favorites in the NCAAs since ’07, going 42-3 SU and 30-15 ATS (66.7%). (ON CONNECTICUT -11)
Big East teams are on a 9-2 SU and ATS (81.8%) run against Mountain West teams in the tournament. (ON CONNECTICUT -11)
Favorites are 46-18 ATS (71.9%) in the last 64 Big East NCAA Tournament games, including 18-4 ATS the last two years. (ON CONNECTICUT -11, MARQUETTE -6.5)
In NCAA Tournament games between Big East programs and non-major conferences since ’15, favorites are on a 32-11 SU and 31-10 ATS (73.7%) run. (ON CONNECTICUT -11)

Big Ten

Overall, Big Ten teams and top-six seeds haven’t meshed well since 2015, as they are 45-31 SU but 31-44-1 ATS (41.3%) in that scenario. (AGAINST ILLINOIS +2, PURDUE -5.5)
Big Ten teams have gone just 8-18-1 ATS (30.8%) since ’15 in the NCAA Tournament vs. Big 12 and Pac-12 foes. (AGAINST ILLINOIS +2)
In tournament games with single-digit point spreads versus mid-major conference foes in the NCAAs, Big Ten teams are on an ugly 29-44 ATS (39.7%) skid since ‘06. (AGAINST PURDUE -5.5)
In tournament games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 18-33 SU and 19-30-2 ATS (38.8%) since ’17. (AGAINST ILLINOIS +2, PURDUE -5.5)

Mountain West

Mountain West teams’ struggles in the NCAAs haven’t been that well-documented, but collectively they are just 30-61 SU and 29-59-3 ATS (32.9%) since 2001. (AGAINST SAN DIEGO STATE +11)
As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 11-42 SU and 14-36-3 ATS (28%) since ’01. (AGAINST SAN DIEGO STATE +11)
Mountain West Conference teams have been overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAAs since 2000, 12-49 SU and 15-44-2 ATS (25.4%). (AGAINST SAN DIEGO STATE +11)

Pac-12

Pac-12 teams are just 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) in the Sweet 16 round since ’01. (AGAINST ARIZONA -7)

SEC

The last five NCAA Tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 41-41 SU and 30-52 ATS (36.6%) since the Friday of the first round in the ’18 tourney. (AGAINST ALABAMA +4.5, TENNESSEE -3)
Underdogs are 49-26 ATS (65.3%) in the last 75 SEC NCAA Tournament games overall. (ON ALABAMA +4.5, AGAINST TENNESSEE -3)
As pick-’ems or small favorites of five points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 42-52 SU and 34-56-4 ATS (37.8%) in the NCAAs since ’99. (AGAINST TENNESSEE -3)
SEC teams had been a solid wager in the Sweet 16 round, 18-5-2 ATS from 2003-17, but they are just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS (25%) since. (AGAINST ALABAMA +4.5, TENNESSEE -3)
The No. 4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 16-24 ATS (40%) in that spot since ’00 and have gone UNDER the total at a 29-10-1 (74.4%) rate. (AGAINST ALABAMA +4.5 – UNDER 173.5 ALABAMA-NORTH CAROLINA)

West Coast

West Coast Conference teams are just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS (23.1%) in their last 13 NCAA games against top-3 seeds. (AGAINST GONZAGA +5.5)

West Coast Conference teams haven’t been as good as suspected as NCAA Tournament underdogs, 7-22 SU and 8-21 ATS (27.6%) since ’07, including 10 straight outright and ATS losses. (AGAINST GONZAGA +5.5)

Head-to-Head Series NCAA Betting Trends for Sweet 16

(631) ILLINOIS vs. (632) IOWA STATE
• IOWA STATE is 2-0 SU and ATS vs. Illinois since 2015, both neutral-court games, outscoring the Illini 84-70.5 on average. Both games also went UNDER the total.
(633) SAN DIEGO STATE vs. (634) CONNECTICUT
• UConn beat San Diego State 76-59 in the tournament championship game last April, its second straight SU and ATS win in the series since ’11. Both games went OVER the total.
(635) ALABAMA vs. (636) NORTH CAROLINA
• NORTH CAROLINA and ALABAMA have split two matchups since 2019, with the Tide going 2-0 ATS, including a 103-101 Bama win last season.
(637) CLEMSON vs. (638) ARIZONA
• ARIZONA won the two most recent games versus Clemson outright and ATS in ’11 and ’12, holding the Tigers to 50.5 PPG.
(639) GONZAGA vs. (640) PURDUE
• PURDUE’s 73-63 win in the Maui Invitational this season was its second straight outright and ATS win over Gonzaga in November play since ’22. Both games went UNDER the total as well.
(643) NC STATE vs. (644) MARQUETTE
• MARQUETTE and NC STATE haven’t met since a home-and-road series in ’08 and ’09. The teams split those games SU and ATS with the road team garnering the sweep.